Buffalo Sabres general manager Jarmo Kekalainen is preparing for a busy offseason as he attempts to transform the organization into a perennial playoff contender while dealing with some tight salary-cap constraints this summer.
A lot of what happens over the next few months hinges on whether the Finnish executive opts to re-sign star winger Alex Tuch, whose reported asking price on a long-term contract extension has remained relatively steady around $10.5 million annually.
Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reported Wednesday night that, while there's still time for a last-ditch solution to emerge, it "appears more and more likely" Tuch will hit the NHL free-agent market.
"I don't think Sabres GM Jarmo Kekalainen can bring himself to view Tuch in the double-digit salary world," LeBrun wrote.
A lot of NHL insiders have updated the situation over the past few weeks and there hasn't been a single shred of optimism so far about the sides coming anywhere close to an agreement.
Tuch is in a position of strength. He's recorded 309 points (139 goals and 170 assists) in 360 appearances across five seasons in Buffalo. The Syracuse native arrived to Western New York in 2021 as part of the blockbuster Jack Eichel trade with the Vegas Golden Knights.
The 30-year-old winger, who's proven effective playing all three phases (even strength, power play and penalty kill), will be the top forward available in free agency if he does hit the open market next month. A bidding war could push his yearly salary toward $11 million or more.
Kekalainen and Co. have held out hope the winger's Central New York roots would lead him to consider a "hometown discount" but it doesn't seem that'll be the case.
AFP Analytics projects Tuch, who HockeyStats.com ranks in the 87th percentile among NHL forwards in projected wins above replacement (WAR), to receive a seven-year, $70.82 million contract ($10.12 million AAV) in free agency.
Given this is probably the 6-foot-4 power forward's final chance to cash in on a long-term deal, he appears ready to see what other teams have to offer beginning July 1.
Alex Tuch leaving in NHL free agency wouldn't answer all of the Buffalo Sabres' cap questions
The Sabres could desperately use some financial wiggle room for the offseason — it's a short-term problem since the dead-cap hit for the Jeff Skinner buyout drops from $6.4 million to $2.4 million next year — but letting Tuch walk doesn't solve the entire issue.
Buffalo has a projected $11.9 million in available cap space, per PuckPedia. That number is based on a roster without a No. 7 defenseman, so the real figure is likely closer to $11 million.
Here's the problem: If Kekalainen wants to re-sign two key restricted free agents, Zach Benson and Peyton Krebs, most of that money will be gone. Benson will command around $7 million on a long-term extension, while Krebs could push for around $3.5 million.
So, the Sabres will need to move out some salary. Jordan Greenway ($4 million) is the most obvious trade candidate, though Bowen Byram ($6.25 million), Jason Zucker ($4.75 million) and Jack Quinn ($3.375 million) would be more palatable options for rival front offices. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen ($4.75 million) is also an option if the club wants to shake things up in net.
Then there's Josh Norris ($7.95 million), whose injury-prone history will negatively impact any attempt to trade him despite his strong production when healthy. Including him may be a necessity if Buffalo tries to land a high-priced, top-six scoring forward via trade.
All of that illustrates the high number of variables Kekalainen will be forced to juggle as the Sabres attempt to continue their transformation from a league-wide laughingstock into a true Stanley Cup threat after ending their 14-year playoff drought.
It's a difficult financial equation no matter how you slice it, but it becomes a lot more complicated if Tuch is re-signed, especially at a number anywhere close to his preferred salary.
That's why the tea leaves continue to suggest he's heading to free agency.
